Analysis of the Influence of Interest Rates, Inflation, Rupiah Exchange Rates, World Oil Prices, And World Gold Prices on JCI (Case Study on JCI on the IDX during the Period January 2015 – December 2024)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.59141/jiss.v6i4.1706Keywords:
IHSG, macro economic, crude oil price, gold priceAbstract
Indonesian Stock Exchange Composite Index (JCI) is
significantly influenced by macroeconomic and commodity
factors, yet prior studies show inconsistent findings regarding
their impacts, especially in the post-pandemic context. This study
aims to clarify the effects of Interest Rates, Inflation, Rupiah
Exchange Rates, World Oil Prices, and World Gold Prices on the
JCI from 2015 to 2024. Employing a quantitative approach
through explanatory research, we analyzed 120 time-series
samples using multiple linear regression analysis. The results
reveal that World Oil Prices have a significant positive effect on
the JCI (β = 0.358), while World Gold Prices also show a positive
correlation (β = -0.146). In contrast, Interest Rates, Inflation, and
Exchange Rates do not exhibit significant impacts on the index.
The pronounced influence of oil prices highlights the sensitivity
of Indonesia’s market to commodity fluctuations. Policymakers
and investors are advised to focus on oil price volatility and
geopolitical risks, while also diversifying their portfolios to
address uncertainties related to gold prices. Future research should
investigate sectoral asymmetries and incorporate high-frequency
data to provide deeper insights into these dynamics.
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